[Focused Planning] 2026 Global Wildfire Calendar, Facing a Charred Future

Every year, 10 million hectares, an area equivalent to 14 million soccer fields, of forest disappears from the Earth. The speed of this destruction is pushing the planet's self-healing capacity to its limits. The development and industrial activities that take place where forests once stood accelerate climate change, completing a deadly vicious cycle that brings about larger, longer-lasting, and more frequent wildfires.

Based on the latest climate data, the '2026 Global Wildfire Simulation' implemented by artificial intelligence (AI) vividly visualizes the apocalyptic future warned by the scientific community. Starting in January in Australia and continuing through Asia, North America, and the Amazon, before returning to Australia in December, this virtual 'Flame Calendar' declares that the term 'wildfire season' has become meaningless. We have now entered a world that burns year-round, known as 'Pyrocene'.

Part 1: The Normalization of Mega-Fires, Collapsing Safe Zones

In the simulation set in July, the sky over San Francisco, USA, is shrouded in orange haze, and wildfires in western Canada last for over 60 days. This is not an exaggerated scenario. The reality is already harsher than this.

In 2023, Canada experienced its worst wildfires in history, burning an area of 185,000 square kilometers, far exceeding the size of South Korea (approximately 100,000 km²). The fires that began in spring continued into autumn, and the smoke produced caused air quality in New York, USA, to plummet to the worst levels in the world. 'Mega-fires,' which used to occur once in several decades, have now become an annual event.

The situation in the Southern Hemisphere is no different. The 'Black Summer' wildfires in Australia from late 2019 to early 2020 affected approximately 3 billion wild animals. The simulation focuses on January and December in New South Wales, Australia, because this area is one of the most vulnerable to high temperatures and extreme drought caused by climate change.

These mega-fires threaten not only ecosystems but also socio-economic systems. In California, USA, astronomical wildfire damage has led major insurance companies to stop selling or withdraw from homeowners' fire insurance, a phenomenon known as 'insurance exodus.' Disasters first sever the weakest links in society.

Part 2: Burning Rainforests and Structural Causes

The causes of wildfires are complex and vary by region. In the case of the Amazon, which serves as the backdrop for the simulation in August and September, while climate change plays a role, human greed is identified as a more direct cause. Illegal arson and deforestation for cattle grazing and agricultural land are the main causes of wildfires. As the 'lungs of the Earth' lose their function, the Amazon is at risk of turning from a massive carbon sink into a carbon emitter. Experts warn that the Amazon could become a dry savanna that is irreversibly unable to recover if it surpasses the 'Tipping Point.'

The situation in Indonesia and Southeast Asia is also severe. The practice of setting fire to peatlands for palm oil plantations leads to disastrous consequences. Peatlands, which are natural carbon reservoirs formed by the accumulation of plant debris over thousands of years, emit dozens of times more greenhouse gases and fine dust than regular wildfires once ignited, and they can burn for months. This is the main culprit behind the 'Haze' that blankets Southeast Asia every year.

Part 3: New Threats, Arctic Screams and Asian Springs

Climate change is expanding the frontlines of wildfires to unexpected regions. The increase in wildfires in the Arctic, including Siberia and Alaska, is one of the most concerning phenomena. As permafrost melts, methane gas is released, which in turn exacerbates temperature rises and causes more wildfires. In particular, 'Zombie Fires,' which survive under the snow in winter and reignite in the following spring, symbolize fundamental changes in the Arctic ecosystem.

In the simulation set in April and May, the eastern coast of Gangwon, South Korea, northeastern China, and Hokkaido, Japan, also face danger. In particular, South Korea shows a trend of 'large-scale urbanization' where wildfires rapidly threaten cities due to the combination of dry spring air and strong winds (Yangganjipung), necessitating special preparedness.

Traditional wildfire risk areas along the Mediterranean coast are becoming even more extreme. The flames in the simulation engulfing olive groves and vineyards in Greece and Spain in October are the result of record heatwaves combined with droughts not seen in decades. These disasters are shaking the foundations of Mediterranean countries' key industries such as agriculture and tourism, as well as food security.

Part 4: From Despair to Recovery, the Path of Systemic Transition

In the face of the bleak landscape presented by AI for 2026, it is easy to feel powerless. However, this simulation is not a predetermined future but a warning of what will happen if we do not change the current system. To break the vicious cycle of disasters, we need to confront the root causes of the problems and redesign the entire system.

First, we must move away from viewing wildfires as merely issues of individual negligence or misfortune. This is a structural failure caused by an industrial structure reliant on fossil fuels and indiscriminate deforestation. Therefore, the most urgent solution is a rapid decarbonization of the entire industry and an energy transition.

Second, we need to change the paradigm of wildfire response strategies. We should move away from a 'suppression' centered approach that indiscriminately tries to extinguish fires, towards a direction that allows ecosystems to coexist with fire through 'management.' We should learn from the wisdom of traditional fire management practices of indigenous peoples that have lasted for thousands of years (such as planned small burns) and work to restore ecosystems with fire-resistant species.

Third, we must strengthen the resilience of communities in preparation for disasters. Urban planning regarding the boundaries between forests and residential areas should be restructured, and a social safety net that can protect vulnerable groups during disasters should be tightly established.

'2026 Global Wildfire Calendar' poses a painful question to us. Will we accept the era of flames as it is, or will we choose the path of sustainable recovery? Because we are alive, we must persist. That choice is now in our hands.